A progression which complicates the task of PS

It is already a certainty: the left side of the left will be better this year in the European in 2004. Much more even. The latest polls the crediting of more than 15 of the vote. Five years ago, it had obtained that 8.44 of the vote. A progression which complicates the task of PS. According to Jérôme Fourquet, Deputy Director of the opinion of the Ifop Institute Department, the Socialists had benefited in 2004 from remorse voters who had not qualified its candidate for the second round of the presidential election: "useful vote was then played to full for the Socialists, it will no longer be the case" this time. "The PS for the useful vote arguments are not at all, because it is an election where one runs no risk, where the issue of power is low, says Roland Cayrol, of the National Foundation of political science." There is a double punishment vote in this context of economic crisis: the first against Nicolas Sarkozy and the second against the PS.

Step to union forces

For this expert, the image of the Socialist Party has, in addition, not much improved since its disastrous Congress of November last in Reims. "People are not pleased with the President of the Republic, but they believe that the Socialists would be worse." "It is not enough to say that Nicolas Sarkozy does poorly, must have something to propose alternative" decrypts Roland Cayrol.

The left of the left a beautiful game to denounce the errors of the capitalist system, highlighted by the crisis, and the lack of initiative of the European Union this challenge without precedent since the 1930s in the campaign. And it is least expected that the PS on its proposals.

However, it is, once again, not managed to unify all its forces in an attempt to pre-empt the Socialist Party on June 7. If the left party and the Communist party formed the left Front, the new party anti-capitalist (NPA) and Lutte ouvrière (LO) preferred compete under their own colors. The alliance led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who campaigned actively, and the new formation of Olivier Besancenot, significantly more in withdrawal for the moment, are elbow-to-elbow in voting intentions around 6 to 7 of the vote each. But the electorate of the NPA, rather young and popular, is a population particularly affected by the crisis and may be inclined to abstain.

LO "ringardisé".

LO, for its part, seems to suffer from the withdrawal of Arlette Laguiller for the benefit of Nathalie Arthaud, much less known. The Trotskyist party is credited by 2 in the polls. "The CRL then the NPA have succeeded in ringardiser the LO desisted by their ability to be multi-pronged: immigration, duty of remembrance, GMOs or social", explains Vincent Tiberj from the Cevipof.

Remains to know how to distribute in the end the protest vote. The Modem, which made antisarkozysme his main campaign theme and arises first opponent in the head of State, could capture much of the malcontents. Over the left of the left.